For all the valor he displayed in
Here are some of the many reasons why, short of another terrorist attack or a revelation than Obama was also a client of the Emperor’s VIP Club, McCain doesn’t stand a chance come November. Think of these as arrows in the Democratic quiver.
Age Before Beauty...Or Anything Else
Yes, he has displayed vigor on the campaign trail. Yes, his mother is 96 and still spry. But facts is facts, and actuarial tables is actuarial tables: he’s a 71-year-old cancer survivor who spent five years in a POW camp (and they say Obama is the Manchurian Candidate?!). How will his body handle the rigors of the job? Wouldn’t he be better off with his constituents, at one of the many retirement communities in
One of the underreported items in the primary coverage is that Obama, born in 1961, is the nation’s first Generation X candidate (the post-Baby Boom generation begins roughly in 1960). It is not just his skin color (although, as Geraldine Ferraro suggested, the bi-racial background doesn’t hurt) but his membership in Generation X, and the more inclusive worldview that comes with it, that allows him to transcend racial barriers, break down traditional ways of thinking about politics, and inspire younger voters. If anyone can draw the withdrawal-in-disgust-is-not-the-same-as-apathy crowd to the polls, Obama’s the guy. Look for a big spike in younger voters, the ones who supposedly don’t vote.
Rush Limbaugh refuses to endorse McCain. Not enough of a right-wing goon, apparently. Ann Coulter says she’ll vote for Hillary instead of McCain, because “she’s more conservative than he is.” Charles Krauthammer’s support has been so lackluster, he’s taken to parsing Obama’s speeches instead. William Kristol, David Brooks, and George Will write as if the GOP is dead and buried. And William F. Buckley is dead and buried. So the conservative pundits ain’t exactly drinking the McCool Aid. The evangelicals, meanwhile, can’t stand McCain, because he’s not a “values” conservative (they heart Huckabee, who as a serious presidential candidate is one heckuva bass player), so they’re not jumping aboard the Straight Talk Express—even though McCain is pro-life, or, as I like to call it, pro-foisting-women’s-medical-decisions-on-them. So McCain has managed to turn off both conservative Christians and women’s advocacy groups. Who says two sides can’t agree?
Temper, Temper
McCain is a hothead. He gets mad and swears and breaks things. I get mad and swear and break things, too, but I’m not sitting across the negotiating table from the North Koreans, nor do I have the keys to the nuclear football. Obama, meanwhile, is the picture of serenity, grace under pressure, calm, cool, collected, and just the guy you want making decisions when tempers flare. In the presidential debates, which unlike the primary ones will actually have an audience, this contrast will be stark. Anger might work in the Senate, where you can tell Pat Leahy to fuck off, but is a liability in an executive role. Ask Eliot Spitzer how well the “fucking steamroller” thing worked.
The Viagra Factor
I saw McCain once, at the Unity journalism conference in 1998. He approached our booth, which was attended by about a dozen journalists, and was about to march right by when he noticed that one of our number was actually a hottie. He stopped in his tracks, did a perfect pivot, and offered her his firm handshake. “John McCain,” he said, his eyes twinkling, ignoring the rest of us. My point is, the guy is something of a rake. The Times story about how his aides were concerned that he was having an affair? The one he denied in no uncertain terms? Let’s just say where there’s smoke, there’s a politician with his pants down.
It’s the Economy, Stupid
We’re staring at the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression—a crisis exacerbated by two Republican staples of governance: ill-conceived tax cuts for billionaires and reckless deregulation (anyone who argues in favor of less government regulation needs to buy a high school American history book and read about the second half of the 19th century). Conservatives call it laissez-faire; I call it asleep-at-the-wheel. McCain admits that economics is not his strong suit; his most relevant experience with money matters involves the Keating Five. His big economic proposal involves “a panel chaired by Alan Greenspan, whether he’s dead or alive.” The same Alan Greenspan who presided with pompoms over the real estate bubble. That McCain would joke about the economy in the midst of the subprime crisis shows how out of touch he is. Republicans have nothing to offer poor and middle-class Americans, economically. Democrats are so used to watching Obama and Hillary debate almost health plans, we’ve forgotten how progressive universal health care is, and how hard it will be to debate against. Which is what McCain will attempt to do, using the “socialized” word to scare us. Sorry, John, but rising health care costs are scarier than socialism.
It’s the War, Stupid
With Obama, we will be spared the Kerryan I-voted-for-it-before-I-voted-against-it equivocality that would mar a Hillary campaign. It's cut and dried: Obama, a staunch early opponent of the war, wants us out of
Map Math
If that doesn’t convince you, take a look at the electoral map and do the math. The 2004 election was extremely close, even though the Democrats ran the most unelectable candidate since…since…who, Mondale? McGovern? Despite his numerous flaws, Kerry lost the electoral college by 34 votes. A win in
Conclusion
If Obama and Clinton spent the next few months sniping at each other, that's fine. If the process drags on until the convention, that's fine, too. All of the above arrows will be used to pelt McCain, and if we only have two months to use them, it only means we won't run out of ammo.
Bottom line: Obama could pick Jeremiah Wright as his running mate, and still kick McCain's butt.
