Tuesday, October 28, 2008

It ain't over till it's over...or until O gets to 270 electoral votes

The consensus of the pollsters is that the election is over. McCain/Palin is toast, Obama will cruise to easy victory, and the Dems might even have a fillibuster-proof majority in the Senate. And people are still worried.

Here's the deal: Obama has 260 electoral votes in the bag. And by "in the bag," I mean, "more than 10 points ahead with a week to go." He controls the Northeast, the West Coast, and the upper Midwest. This tally does not include Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Missouri, Colorado, or any of the other "close" states. Just the gimmes. This means he only needs ten more EVs to capture the White House.

So: if Obama wins Florida, he wins. If he wins Ohio, he wins. If he wins Virginia, he wins. If he wins North Carolina, he wins. If he wins Indiana, he wins. If he wins Missouri, he wins. If he...

You get the idea. He only has to win one of those states -- and he's up in all of them.

Don't believe in polls? Bradley Effect got you down? Check out the numbers on Intrade.com, the best predictive market out there, with over 80,000 members. Intrade is almost always more accurate than even the pollsters in predicting elections. As one of their bloggers, my good friend and math geek Cody Stumpo, writes, with a week to go, McCain has a one percent chance of winning. Long odds, indeed.